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November 2018
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Market Conditions

Understanding the Market | Greater Nashville

Greater Nashville Housing Market Remains Strong
Market Strength Brings Challenges
by Kenneth Bargers | January 27, 2018
 
2017 - The Greater Nashville area continues to be one of the hottest real estate markets in the United States.  A continued strong economy pushed momentum in 2016, the values and home sales continued to increase throughout 2017 and ended the second half of 2017 as a consistent monthly housing market in the nation.  Several industry and data tracking entities named Nashville among their Top 20 housing markets for 2017.
 
Due to the reputation of the "It City", relocation is heavy to Middle Tennessee and with this popularity comes shortages in housing inventory.  Existing-home and new construction inventory struggle to keep pace with the number of buyers.  Housing inventory remained a concern throughout 2017 and forecasted to be a challenge for 2018.  Corporate and company expansion of new facilities are in place for 2018 bringing employment additions to Middle Tennessee - adding additional pressure for housing availability to the already strong Greater Nashville destination.  Addressing the housing inventory will be one of 2018’s priorities with the current popularity of Greater Nashville and Partnership 2020’s continued aggressive pursuit of future business placements and attractions.
 
Demand for housing also adds as an influence factor on the value of home prices.  Increased home values in 2017 will continue in 2018 per current indicators.  With increased home values also comes the challenge of home ownership affordability within segments of our population.  Of course, the success of national economic guidelines and policies will contribute as a factor in the local up or downturn of our housing market.
 
Overall, a strong economy, attractive mortgage rates, appeal of Middle Tennessee, along with the desire of home ownership as part of the American Dream should bring another impressive year of housing market production but should fall short and hard to match the record year produced in 2017. 



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Some key highlights from September 2018 housing data:

3,258 home closings September 2018; a 8% increase from September 2017

2,662 under contract at end of September 2018

Median residential price for single home dwelling was $290,000 September 2018 compared to $280,000 September 2017

12,415 housing inventory at the end of September 2018 compared to 9,358 housing inventory of September 2017

Average Days on Market was 30 days


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Understanding the Market | National Overview

2017 - The housing market performed reasonably well last year, but housing construction still did not full return to historically normal levels - Only 1.2 million housing units were constructed compared to the historical average of 1.5 million starts a year. This underproduction is the principal cause of the ongoing housing shortage, and why the economy did not fully get back up to 3% GDP growth possibility last year. 



NAR Report: Market Could Stabilize as More Homes are Listed
National Association of REALTORS® | September 20, 2018


Existing-home sales remained mostly flat in August, bringing relief to markets following four consecutive months of decreases. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest helped to offset downturns in the South and West last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ existing-home sales report, released Thursday.


Existing-home sales—which are completed transaction for single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops—remained at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million in August, the same as July. Sales are 1.5 percent below a year ago, NAR reports.


“Strong gains in the Northeast and a moderate uptick in the Midwest helped to balance out any losses in the South and West, halting months of downward momentum,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “With inventory stabilizing and modestly rising, buyers appear ready to step back into the market.”


Here’s a closer look at some of the findings:


Home prices: The median existing-home price for all housing types was $264,800—up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

Inventory: Total housing inventory at the end of August was at 1.92 million existing homes for sale, up from 1.87 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace.

Days on the market: Properties stayed on the market an average of 29 days in August, down from 30 days a year ago. Fifty-two percent of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month. “While inventory continues to show modest year over year gains, it is still far from a healthy level and new home construction is not keeping up to satisfy demand,” Yun says. “Homes continue to fly off the shelves with a majority of properties selling within a month, indicating that more inventory—especially moderately priced, entry-level homes—would propel sales.”

All-cash sales: All-cash sales comprised 20 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from a year ago. Investors tend to make up the biggest bulk of all-cash sales. They made up 13 percent of home sales in August, down from 15 percent a year ago.

Distressed sales: Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 3 percent of sales in August, the lowest reading since NAR began tracking such data in October 2008. Broken out, 2 percent of sales were foreclosures and 1 percent were short sales.


“We are probably seeing a reaction to the uncertainty around how sustainable recent price increase will be in the near future,” says Ruben Gonzalez, chief economist at Keller Williams. “Nationally, we expect sales to continue to track slightly below last year’s levels as inventory starts to move upward.”


Source: National Association of REALTORS®; REALTOR® Mag News, 092018



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